GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Some storms

18 April 2011

Some storms

Recent forecasts from our friends at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) have me rather confused at this moment. I use the term confused in the sense that I am questioning the way they got their numbers. SPC is thinking that strong storm activity will be possible just to the south of the region, however they have placed Fort Wayne under a "moderate" chance for strong storms tomorrow, and they have placed Detroit, Toledo, Cleveland under a "slight risk". Either way, slight for the SPC means "good chance". Ok, now before we jump to conclusion, I am going to inform you on why I am questioning this:

First off, we might get some cloud cover for the day tomorrow...this means no lift. Other problem will be cool temps, and most of us tomorrow will barely get into the 50's for a high. The combination of cloud cover and cooler temps are going to make it hard for those storms to develop.

I did redo the forecasts already this morning, and I added "thunderstorms" for Toledo and Fort Wayne tomorrow. Now, most of these storms I am guessing will be mixed in with rain showers. I do not expect that a watch will be issued, again, it will be cloudy. But we could get a strong storm in the mix at this point. That will of course be something that throughout the day today I am going to monitor. When I did the forecast this morning, I wasn't really getting any indications that strong storms would and will develop, so I am going to just keep those extended forecasts where they are update them later this morning if need be. At this point, the biggest threat will be gusty winds from these storms. There could be some hail with them, but only because the freezing level will be somewhat low in the atmosphere. Oh well, its spring.

So for the day today, we're going to see those scattered rain showers possible any time this morning. The chances will decrease as the system moves to the south of the region, but that wont be until later this afternoon. There will be a brief break of precip chances between this afternoon and this evening, however later tonight across the region, those chances for rain are going to increase as that front becomes stationary in the Ohio River Valley.

Temps will be cool today, just a tad below average. For those of you getting snow today (Detroit) the snow will mostly accumulate on the grass, but later this afternoon it will melt as temps really get above freezing to a high in the lower 40's.

I'll keep you updated as always, and I'll inform you on this "surprise storm event" which at this point is looking rather questionable in my opinion. So keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.