GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Some storms

03 April 2011

Some storms

(7 p.m. National Surface temps. Notice the extreme contrast over our region, this is because of the warm front.)

Links to some of the radars that I will be using tomorrow located towards the end of this post.

Well, the warm front is already making its way across the region right now, and you might not believe me if I told you that a little earlier on, Indianapolis was at 79°F. Temps are already starting to rise in Fort Wayne, right now you guys are sitting at 67°F. Do not expect temperatures to cool down much tonight, because those winds are going to be gusting out of the southwest and that will keep those temps around 60° for much of the night tonight. Toledo, it is about 55°F and those temps are going to warm up to the upper 50's overnight tonight.

Tonight in Toledo and Fort Wayne we'll see some scattered rain showers and maybe a few storms overnight...especially around the morning hours and sunrise hours. Nothing strong or unusal, but enough to make for a possible wet commute tomorrow morning.

Erie you guys are still at 39° however once that warm front passes through later tonight, you guys will rise up to the mid 50's as will Buffalo more than likely. Skies will be off and on clouds from Fort Wayne to Erie.

As far as rain and storms are concerned. Cirrostratus and altocumulus clouds have confirmed that precip will be likely tomorrow no matter what for both Toledo and Fort Wayne. We're going to see a chance of rain/thunderstorms pretty much the entire day tomorrow for Fort Wayne and Toledo. Some of those storms might be strong ahead of the cold front, around the afternoon/early evening hours is when the best chance for those strong storms will be.

Here is my biggest dilemma right now. Cloud cover. For storm enthusiasts like myself, cloud cover is not a good thing. That will greatly hinder lift and could make for a complete storm flop. This system will be strong enough tomorrow that even with cloud cover we'll still see rain showers and some embedded storms. Now for my "Best Case Scenerio (For Weather enthuiasts) Forecast"

The strongest storms we'll be possibly seeing tomorrow will be the following: Possible severe thunderstorm warnings might be issued for maybe one or two storms in the area tomorrow afternoon, their biggest threat will only be wind however. As far as hail is concerned, that probably wont happen, if it does, it'll be tiny...pellet sized hail. But really, the biggest storms we will see tomorrow if we do see them will be brief gusty winds (around 50 mph) and some very brief heavy downpours. Nothing else will really come out of those storms except maybe a good lightning show if we're lucky.

How will we get these storms? Simple. If we get clearing in the skies tomorrow morning/afternoon, then with that instability in the air and the gusty southwest winds, we'll see those storms fire up as so. Storm is what storm does. But if we dont get that clearing, then...rain. So, tomorrow morning will be vital for the storm activity that we will see during the day, and unfortunetly we will not know if that will happen until tomorrow morning. So, best case scenerio for us weather freaks, a few severe storm warnings due to gusty winds and/or heavy downpours.

Due note that with the passage of this warm front and the very sudden increase and contrast of temps, winds will be gusting around 35-40 mph tomorrow afternoon between Fort Wayne and Erie.

For Buffalo and Detroit tomorrow, eh, mostly just a rain event for you guys tomorrow with a few embedded storms, but nothing too exciting. Temps will be warm for you as well however, so dont think that you're missing out on all the fun.

For Green Bay...you're missing out on all the fun. Good job...

I'll be posting a link for some radar images at the end of this post, you can check those whenever you'd like, they are some of the radars I will be using to track tomorrows storms.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20110403&endTime=-1&duration=0 Radar image for N. Central Indiana/NW Ohio and Southern Michigan. Image centered just to the NE of Fort Wayne. NWS-IWX. TOL is Toledo Express Airport, FWA is Fort Wayne Int'l Airport.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KCLE&prod=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20110403&endTime=-1&duration=0 Radar image for Northern Ohio and NE Pennsylvania. Image centered in Cleveland, Ohio. CLE is Cleveland Hopkins Int'l Airport. ERI is Erie Int'l Airport. TDZ is Toledo Metcalf Field Airport (located in Walbridge, OH).

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110403&endTime=-1&duration=0 Regional radar including Detroit, Fort Wayne, Toledo, southern Green Bay, Erie and extreme western Buffalo. Radar image centered just to the NE of Fort Wayne.

Starting tomorrow morning, I'll be doing an hour by hour update for the heck of it, at least until the majority of this exciting weather passes through. Naturally of course, if things do get out of control in between updates (i.e overnight, which they wont at least tonight) then I'll of course update you all then too as well. Otherwise, normal morning update around 6:30 a.m. tomorrow morning, so do check back for that around that time. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.