GREAT LAKES WEATHER: A rainy day

16 April 2011

A rainy day

(Latest surface chart).

Today's forecast was fairly simple to make this morning for the region today. That low pressure is being accompanied by another low pressure right by its side, they are both at 995 and 994 mbs respectively. The surface charts are just cluttered this morning with isobars (lines of equal pressure), fronts, troughs and all that jazz. Most of this cluttering is happening right around our region. We saw that warm front push through the region last night and right now it is just to the south of Bay City and Traverse City, Michigan. That warm front is helping to bring those rain showers all over the eastern part of the region this morning, and we're going to continue to see these rain showers throughout the day today.

Our low pressure that is mostly causing all of this right now is located just outside of Chicago at 994 mbs. So its about where I expect it in terms of intensity. It will be moving northeast today over Lake Michigan and through the central part of Michigan as the day goes on today. This basically means that the entire region will continue to see these rain showers until that cold front pushes through...if there was a cold front to push through.

Actually, even through there isn't really going to be a cold front that will push through, there is going to be an occluded front (...sort of like a cold front, only with a warm patch of air aloft) and a couple troughs of low pressure. This duo of low pressures is going to make its through the region today, and then later this evening these rain showers are going to end in Fort Wayne and Toledo and Detroit as that low pressure clears out of the region.

Green Bay, you'll be getting some snow today from this low pressure as it will pass to your south and help push in some of that cooler weather. You wont be seeing any accumulation of snow at this point, however you will be seeing some of those rain showers mix this morning and possible again this evening.

In general, much of the region is seeing the same daily forecast. This is because of both that warm front and that low pressure system that is going to be moving right through the middle of the region today. Rain showers are going to be off and on (which means there will be several breaks between these scattered rain showers). Some of these rain showers will be moderate and a couple in the region might be heavy and we could get a confused embedded storm in the mix later this afternoon, but in general this is going to be mostly a rain event.

Showers are pretty much all over the region right now, and they are being reported in Buffalo, Erie, Toledo and Cleveland. So they are all over this morning. Looking at the radar, there appears to be a brief break in those rain showers for the Toledo area, but they will quickly reform over Indiana and come to you guys this afternoon. This will be because a trough of low pressure is going to move on through as well, behind that occluded front, which basically means that rain showers will be likely this afternoon as well. The chances for rain this afternoon wont be as high as the chances for this morning in Fort Wayne, Detroit and Toledo, but they will still be there.

This evening once that occluded front and its armada of troughs finally move through, we're going to see those rain showers start to taper off and basically this will happen this evening. Rain showers will start to come to an end in the above mentioned this evening, and we might start to even see some clearing in the skies, but those rain showers are going to return possibly on Monday afternoon or Monday evening. That will be something I will update you all on this afternoon.

For Erie and Buffalo, scattered rain showers likely throughout the day today, more than likely the majority of them will happen in the morning and then a fair chance of rain showers this afternoon, however they too will start to come to an end before the midnight hours. Tomorrow, could be a few lingering rain showers in the morning, but they will mostly be out of the region by this time. Could see some clearing tomorrow afternoon in the Erie and Buffalo region, as we'll see highs try to get into the lower 50's tomorrow...if lucky.

So in general, a pretty rainy day today, biggest chances will be this morning, but across the region there will still be chances of rain showers this afternoon. Most of them will be ending before midnight across the region. Temps are going to be varied across the region, so do be sure to check those daily and extended forecast.

I'll have another update this afternoon, and perhaps if things begin to change a bit in the next model runs and surface charts then I'll update those extended forecasts for you guys. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.