GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Rainy and stormy

08 April 2011

Rainy and stormy

(Regional radar image for 6:40 a.m.)

Well for right now, some of you can tell that today will be a rainy day. We have that weakening low pressure system moving just to the south of the region along a stationary front. That is producing quite a bit of rain from Fort Wayne to Cleveland at this time. However, those rain showers are about to enter the Erie area in a little bit, and by mid morning they will be in Buffalo as well.

The heaviest of rain for Fort Wayne, Detroit and Toledo will occur this morning, and then we'll go to off and on rain showers by the afternoon as that system begins to work its way out of the area.

For Toledo, Fort Wayne and Detroit, these rain showers will be over with around the evening hours and for Buffalo and Erie they will still be in your area until the midnight hours.

Mostly this will just be a rain event with some embedded storms and you'll pick up about 0.50 to 0.75 inches of rain before all is said and done.

Now, the biggest thing that I have been focusing on these past couple days has been the possibility for some thunderstorm action on Sunday and Sunday night across much of the region. The SPC has begun to shift their focus to a little bit further west towards the area just south of Green Bay. So Green Bay, you'll start mentioned a bit more these next couple days. That doesn't mean however that nobody else is going to get any storms, ah-ha, hardly. Let's type about this for a moment here.

What is happening is that we have this strong low pressure that is going to form out of the Plains later today/over night tonight. This low will hang around there for a day, and then it will quickly head up northeast towards the Wisconsin area. It is going to have a warm front (as all low pressure do, thanks to physics) and that warm front is going to start to move through the southern part of the region late Satuday. This is going to raise temps abit, so nobody is really going to have a low on Saturday night/Sunday morning because it'll be about the same as your Saturday high. Oh well. As this warm front rises up north, it will bring some rain showers and some scattered thunderstorms to the area on Saturday night/Sunday morning, but it's a slight chance so dont get worked up over it.

Temps on Sunday will vary across the region thanks to this warm front. For Toledo, Cleveland and Fort Wayne, highs will get near 80°. But for other places it'll be around the 70's for you all. On Sunday, this cold front is going to start to work its way towards the region as the low pressure continues to cruise northeast.

Sunday night, this cold front will start to cross towards the Green Bay area, where we could pick up a few strong storms, but the biggest threat will be gusty winds, small hail. Nothing much more than that. I am thinking there will be some severe thunderstorm warnings issued with a couple of these storms, but again that will be because of gusty winds and small hail.

The cold front will work its way east through the overnight hours and by sunrise Monday, Toledo and Fort Wayne could get some of those thunderstorms as well, maybe even Detroit at that time.

Monday afternoon, that cold front will still be working its way towards Cleveland, but it is going to lose some of its oomph, so the storms might not be as heavy as I originally expected. Cold front then reaches Erie, but it'll end up being a mix of rain showers and some thunderstorms, and by the time it gets to Buffalo it could be just all rain showers.

So the biggest threat for thunderstorm activity will be on Sunday night/Monday morning. The areas to watch out for will places like Green Bay, Fort Wayne and Toledo...possibly Detroit.

This afternoon, I am going to update those extended forecasts and I'll go over with you my complete timeline and through in some graphics for you all. Like I typed, I am not expecting anything too major from this system, but it will be a fun one to track nonetheless. So do check back this afternoon, and you'll be glad you did because you wont be caught off guard by these storms and rain showers.

I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.