The region tonight is going to see a variety of rain showers and some thunderstorms throughout the night tonight. I am watching as that warm front is making its way towards the region right now. It is still down in the Ohio River Valley, but if all goes according to plan, then this warm front will be in the region no later than very early tomorrow morning. What this warm front is going to do is warm those temps up to the 50's for placs like Toledo, Fort Wayne and possibly even Detroit and Cleveland by the sunrise hours. This is also going to make that air a bit unstable and will assist in both the development of rain showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern part of the region tonight.
Most of the storms are going to be regular, typical spring like storms with nice lightning and rain of course, however we might get a strong storm in the mix in places like Fort Wayne and maybe even Toledo could get a strong storm. At this point, the biggest thing these storms will bring is going to heavy rainfall and possibly some gusty winds.
I am watching some storms forming back in Missouri along that warm front, so as that front moves northward tonight, we might start to see some of those same storms make it close to the region. However I do expect that much of the thunderstorm activity will stay to the south of the region tonight and tomorrow morning, and we'll probably see more rain showers than storms tonight, but both are pretty equal in chances to be quite honest with you.
Now for places like Erie and Buffalo, you'll more than likely see some scattered rain showers tonight, and then you'll see a chance of some more showers and thunderstorms by the mid morning or late morning hours. For you guys, most of it will be rain, but again, you could get an embedded storm in the mix and that will be something that of course I will keep you updated on if need be. However, the main focus for tonight again is Toledo and Fort Wayne.
It is not that I am expecting anything in the Toledo and Fort Wayne area, but the you must admit, we've been in a sort of "excitment lull" with these low pressures (not that what they haven't given us isn't fun, but you know what I mean).
So we are going to analyze this system a little bit for the heck of it, just to give you some idea of what I am looking at this evening. Lets type about it for a second. Now, we have that low pressure centered down in Missouri right now at 1000 mbs, not strong but a fairly decent low pressure nonetheless. This low pressure however is strong enough that it will be bringing up some of that warm air and moist air from the south. This "push" so to speak is what is causing that warm front (remember low pressures have a counter clockwise flow, so hence the front only appearing on the eastern side of the low). Tailing from the centre of the low pressure is the cold front.
This cold front seems to be popping storms up in the eastern part of Missouri right now, and the storms are following the warm front...and they are parallel to the cold front. These storms are very interesting to watch right now, they are spawning quite a few warnings just to the west of St. Louis right now, and they are lighting up the regional radar at this time. The storms will more than likely weaken a bit as the evening goes on, however they will still stick around. They are moving in the direction of the low pressure and the cold/warm fronts. These particular storms might actually cut it very close to the southern part of the region tonight if they do hold, however I am expecting that some of those warnings will be dropped and that the biggest thing we could get from them is a typical severe thunderstorm warning.
(Radar image for St. Louis, MO at 8.16 p.m. The storm to the very north is the one I will be referencing too in the following paragraph).
There is a very particular cluster just crossing into Illinois at this time, it is north of St. Louis and looks to be that a small, yet some what slow developing storm line is trying to come from it. If any of the storms over that way were to hold, I am thinking that it will be that one. Either way, we dont need the storms in Missouri and Illinois to hold for us to get some storms, nah, we got our own starting to pop up here and there.
Right now in north central Indiana, we have a small cluster of storms that has actually formed rather recently, however it doesn't look like it will develop into anything too much. Another cluster of storms and rain showers has formed down south of Lima, Ohio and that will be pushing east...so those ones probably wont do anything for us, however the development of rain showers and thunderstorms over in north central Indiana could do something for Detroit and northern Toledo later...but it will mostly be rain showers.
So, really the thing to watch out for will be developing rain showers and thunderstorms over in Indiana tonight and those will more than likely just be regular storms with some rain showers as well. The threat of strong storms will come from those storms over in Missouri and Illinois, and if some of them hold they could make it into the region, however if they do make it here they wont be as strong as they are now, so dont get too excited. Fort Wayne and Toledo will see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms tonight, and possibly a strong storm could fall into the mix tonight, but the biggest threat from that will just be very heavy brief downpours and gusty winds (so...a normal storm, only on some steriods).
So these storms will really be likely anytime tonight, no chance is higher than the next except for maybe the early morning hours when that cold front will be near to the southwestern part of the region. Remeber the link to the regional radar image is located on the section with the daily forecasts...copy and paste that address and that will take you to one of the many radars I use to follow storms. If storms do get out of control (which I do not expect them to do) then of course I will be back on to update you and keep you informed on them, but if nothing else the next update will be in the morning where we'll take a look at our next system that will impact us on Sunday night through the day Tuesday. Yes, that time of the year when we'll see a system after a system.
I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.
No comments:
Post a Comment