(A recent 700 mb chart, showing the "kinking" of our next wave of precip. This wave will move towards us this evening...the red circle is my highlight to where the wave is).
Tonight across the southern part of the region will be divided, for a lack of a better term, tonight. The more western part of the southern region (Toledo, Fort Wayne and even Detroit) tonight will see increasing clouds this evening (there is some clearing right now out that way, however those clouds are going to return) and then by the time midnight comes around, we're going to see those scattered rain showers increasing. By the time morning rolls around, there should be quite a plethora of rain showers in the area from Fort Wayne to Toledo and they will start arriving over in the Cleveland at that time as well.
For now, I am expecting that most of whatever will form will basically be rain showers, there could be a rumble of thunder, but to be honest I am expecting that this will be limited to only rain showers late tonight and tomorrow morning. It'll be mid morning tomorrow and then tomorrow afternoon when we'll start to see some of those rain showers get mixed in with some thunderstorms, and then it'll be anyones game when it comes to the precip.
What is causing this? Simple actually.
A weakening low pressure is going to travel along the stationary front (which will fluctuate a bit tonight) and that will introduce those rain showers to the region tonight. This low isn't very strong, so hence why I am thinking that this will all be rain for tonight. The front however isn't going to stay stationary too long. In fact tomorrow we're going to see that warm front move northward as a warm front and that is when things will get interesting, at least in terms of more rain fall and some more storms.
But for tonight, I am looking for a good chance of rain showers in the southern part of the region. Erie and Cleveland wont really get those rain showers until about the early morning hours, and basically it is whatever time the rain showers begin to fall in Toledo and Fort Wayne before I can give you a solid time. Just be sure to check your forecasts.
How long will these rain showers last? Well, I am expecting there will be some brief breaks here and there, but from what I can see and forecast for...it looks like a decent shot of rain showers through Thursday morning in the more western part of the region, and decent chances for rain through Thursday afternoon in the eastern part of the region.
Now, I am going to do some hardcore forecasting tomorrow morning for Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for places like Toledo, Cleveland and Erie because there is some speculation by the SPC that we could get some strongs storms within that time. It sort of makes sense that they are going to be thinking that, and too be honest it doesn't surprise me that they put the southern part of the region under a "slight" risk for strong storms...
we'll be seeing that cold front roll through the area during that time, so that is basically the reason why. Does that mean we're actually going to see some good storms, it is hard to tell at this point, and probably it will be basically what we've seen twice before. However I will be keeping an eye on this, not that I expect too much from it, but it will be worth keeping an eye on.
But we'll type more about that tomorrow morning, for right now, lets briefly go back over what I expect in the region tonight. Wave of precip makes its way into the region. It'll be moving SW to NE this evening, so the places of Fort Wayne and Toledo will see the precip first, and then Cleveland will see it next, followed by Erie and possibly Buffalo (though Buffalo might actually be too far north to get much of the precip from the system). System is going to take its time with us, and then it wont help as the stationary front moves northward as a cold front later tomorrow and that will introduce storms and rain showers to area.
Consider this the evening update, because I do not expect that a whole lot of new weather activity will develop this evening that will compel you to want to read about it (even though I wouldn't mind typing it myself). However, if things do change dramatically, then naturally I will update you later this evening. But with all that being typed, I'll have a morning update at around 5.45 a.m. tomorrow morning where we'll take another look at the rain showers for the day tomorrow, and the possibility of more storms on Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. Also, I'll be getting those extended forecasts updated yet again tomorrow morning as well. I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.
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