GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Rain on the move...

17 April 2011

Rain on the move...

(GFS model showing what it expects the weather to be like on Monday morning).

Well it has happened about 24 hours earlier than I had originally expected, but either way you shouldn't be too surprised that by tomorrow morning much of the region could be seeing scattered rain showers. Here is what is going on...we have a developing low pressure down in the Plain's, and that will be creating a warm front later this afternoon. This warm front is going to start way down in the south and start to work its way to us during the late evening hours and thruogh the day tomorrow. The warm front will eventually make it to us, more than likely it will be in most of the forecasted cities by Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning.

Ahead of the warm front, as most warm front do, there will be some scattered rain showers. Now this isn't going to be an entire washout for the region, it wont be that constant rain. Instead, it is just going to be those scattered rain showers (like what we saw yesterday) and most will more than likely be light with a few heavy spots of rain here and there.

Now, for the beginning of this low pressure system, it is going to have some troubles moving its warm front that northward. A high pressure located over Michigan will sort of "block" those rain showers from going to too far north, so as of right now, Detroit is the only city I am questioning my forecast for on the day Monday and the first part of Tuesday, but for now I will keep it where it is at. But this high pressure will not last very long for the region...nah.

Tuesday evening this high pressure will slip out of the region, and that is why we're going to see that warm front finally push up northward into the region. This is going to introduce a good chance for rain showers for the region on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This time frame is when the best chances of rain will be. At the same time, overnight those temps are going to begin to rise slightly, and we should go from the lower 40's in places like Fort Wayne and Toledo to the upper 40's/lower 50's by the time the morning rolls around. Of course, it wont be clear or anything, it'll filled with clouds and scattered rain showers as most warm fronts bring as well.

Highs on the day Wednesday will be fairly mild and we could yet again hit 70° in Fort Wayne only to have the next day bring those temps back down into the 50's for a high as that system clears out the way and allows for a high pressure to build just to the west and south of the region. So a nice temp contrast as well, and we'll probably yet again get some wind from that.

So in general for the night tonight, a slight chance of rain showers most of the region this afternoon as that warm front starts to get organized. Then, those chances for rain across the region (minus Green Bay) will increase as the night goes on because of that approaching warm front as well as that low which will begin to develop in the Plain's. Tomorrow, scattered rain showers will be likely across much of the region and we'll see them stick around for the day Wednesday and possibly into Wednesday evening as well.

This afternoon, guarenteed, I will update my extended forecasts for you, they have been updated this morning, however I will redo them again once I figure out where that warm front will go exactly. Not that I expect anything major to come from this system, but I will just keep you updated on it as I do with most systems. So do check back later this afternoon for updates.

Now for the Apollo 13 weather. Today is the final day of the Apollo 13 mission, but we're not going to type about that right now. We'll save that for the Evening Update tonight. But now we're going to type about yesterdays weather for 41 years ago during the Apollo 13 mission. Lets take a look...

As you can see that low pressure which was in the Plain's the previous day had moved into Ontario and almost about to enter Quebec...sounds a lot like the weather we're dealing with now, doesn't it? Patterns...gotta love them. As far as temps were across the region, they held up fairly nice...actually they were below average just like yesterday. Highs in Toledo were only at 54°, which was 5° below the average. It did rain in Toledo as well, and they picked up about 0.11 inches of rain.

Cleveland saw a bit of a warmer day as high temps got to 64° where the average high is only 57°.

Detroit, as well, you guys saw a high of 55° and a low of 39° which sounds very identical to yesterday. There was no rain however.

So that was the weather for part of the region on 16 April 1970 as Apollo 13 was in its 6th day of their "sucessful failure" mission.

I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Again, I will have another update as well as extending those extended forecasts later this afternoon. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.