For much of the region today it will be an alright day in terms of just about everything. Temps are going to be mild, if not a little warm in some places and the skies should generally remain mostly clear across the region. The only place that wont be seeing this luck will be Green Bay, however your clearing will come tonight and last you a good couple of days. Lets get to some weather now...
We still have that nice sized low pressure over in the Dakotas right now, and it is at 989 mbs. This low pressure is going to be heading east-northeast through the day today. It does have a stationary front, and that front is running through the Midwest right now, and I do expect that it will start to pull up later today and enter the region tonight and that will raise those overnight temps tonight. This warm front is what'll introduce those chances for rain showers and thunderstorms in the region.
The warm front isn't going to be the only thing to pass through the region this weekend. We have a cold front (extending from the same low pressure) and this front is in the Plain's. This cold front will cross through the region early Monday morning and that will keep those daytime temps rather cool in places like Fort Wayne, Detroit and Toledo. Lets go over a brief timeline of the events that I expect to take place. Also, the graphics represent the 12 hour time perdiod, not the 6 hour time paragraphs that I type about.
This afternoon: As the high pressure moves out of the region, it will help push up some warm air from the south into our region (remember the clockwise flow of a high pressure). Stationary front starts to move towards the region as a warm front, however it will still be down to our south and wont effect much during the afternoon. We will start to see some increasing clouds in Fort Wayne and Toledo late this afternoon, but they will really just be off and on clouds, partially due to the daytime heating.
This evening: We'll start to see some more increasing in cloud cover in the Fort Wayne and Toledo areas, however I am not expecting that it will be an overcast at this time. Clouds will also start to roll into the Detroit and Cleveland area during this time period. The warm front will be close to the forecast area, but still not quite there.
Around midnight: We'll see that warm front be near to the areas of Fort Wayne and Toledo, which means that scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms could start to form after midnight. Clouds will be prominant in the Detroit and Cleveland area, with some increasing cloud cover in Erie.
Late tonight (Satuday Night): Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the Fort Wayne and Toledo area as that warm front will pass on through. Once that warm front passes through, it will continue to head northward towards Detroit and Cleveland.
The precip will be scattered, so it shouldn't be a solid rain event, but they could be numerous in the region at this time. Temps are also going to raise a bit into the mid 50's in Fort Wayne and Toledo.
Tomorrow morning (Sunday morning): Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will be possible, if not likely at times, in the Fort Wayne and Toledo area, and they will just start to become possible in the Detroit, Cleveland and Erie areas. Skies will be mostly cloudy in the above mentioned, however there could be some breaks in the clouds here and there. Temps wont be as warm because of that cloud cover and we could have some cooling from the rain. At this point, I am not expecting that any of the storms that do form will be strong, and we do have a chance that this could be an all morning rain event, so I will have to work on some of those numbers a bit more.
Tomorrow afternoon (Sunday afternoon): Looking for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to be possible from Fort Wayne on up to Buffalo, and some of those rain showers could be heavy at times. By this time, I am expecting that the cold front will still be off to the west of the forecast area, however the closer that cold front gets, the higher the chances of precip (naturally).
Tomorrow night (Sunday night): I am expecting that cold front will be near to the forecast area by the evening hours and then it will start to move through the region overnight on Sunday and into Monday morning. The cold front is going to slow down a little bit, and it will also drag on its southern end, so the timing of the passage is going to be a little tricky, but for now I am expecting that it will have passed through Fort Wayne, Detroit and Toledo before noon on Monday. The passage of the front will be moreso after the midnight hours (Sunday night), and possibly it will pass near the Fort Wayne, Detroit and Toledo areas by the sunrise hours (on Monday). Behind the front, temps will be cooler and those skies will start to clear up gradually, slowly, but gradually. Cleveland and Erie, you'll still be seeing some chances for rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm mixed in somewhere.
Monday morning/afternoon: That cold front will begin to exit the area over near Cleveland and Erie, if not Buffalo as well. Temps are going to start to cool off behind the front in those places as well.
So, the majority of the region today will stay dry (except for Green Bay) and then we're going to watch for some rain showers and possibly some storms getting into the mix late tonight through the day tomorrow. Now, just like last time, it wont be raining nonstop, but there will be times when scattered precip will be numerous through the region. By Monday night the entire region will be cleared out of the region and we should look for a semi-calm week.
Temps are going to stick around average for the day Tuesday across the region as we go into another precip break, and actually the next shot at some rain showers wont be until Thursday in the region, and that is something I will type about more this afternoon.
Extended forecasts have been updated (like they are every morning) and I will be touching them up a bit this afternoon as well as updating you again on that low pressure system in the northern Plain's. So enjoy the fair weather today because tomorrow wont be as fair. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.
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