GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Lack of another title

03 April 2011

Lack of another title

(Low pressure in the northern Plains responsible for the weather over the next 36 horus).

Where to begin, where to begin? Recent model indications and upper level wind charts have indicated to me that the jet stream is going to dip a bit further south than I had originally expected. Now what does this mean for the region? That is simple really, our chances of getting those stronger storms has dropped a bit, in fact the SPC has dropped Toledo and Fort Wayne from a 15% chance down to only a 5% chance for the day tomorrow. This doesn't mean that we wont be seeing any storms however.

Low pressure will move through the region tomorrow, more than likely through Michigan, so this puts us in a good chance for some precip for much of the region between today and tomorrow evening. Here is what will happen:

Today, the low pressure will move out of the Plains and start to make its way towards the Great Lakes region. Warm front is going to race out ahead of this low, and that will introduce rain showers to a good chunk of the region this afternoon (Green Bay will be seeing theirs a bit sooner). Fort Wayne and Toledo will see their rain showers possible anytime after noon today, and then they will become more likely this evening and overnight. Some embedded storms will be possible within these rain showers, but nothing out of the ordinary.

Tonight, that warm front will pass through Toledo and Fort Wayne, and that is going to jack up those temps from the mid 40's to possibly the lower 50's for an overnight low. That means that we'll be seeing a few possible thunderstorms over night with those rain showers, however at this point I do not expect anything too extreme from them.

Tomorrow, the cold front will start to make its way across the region, and behind it temps will quickly drop back into the 40's. Rain showers and thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow. However, with the power of this low pressure system, it will be ushering up that warm air from the south rather quickly, and that means that tomorrow will be a windy day from Fort Wayne on over to Toledo, and possibly Cleveland and Detroit will be getting in on that wind. Gusts around 40 mph, possibly even near 45 mph if lucky tomorrow afternoon. Storms will also be likely from Fort Wayne to Erie, however the intensity of them wont be anything too extreme.

I am expecting that cloud cover will hinder developement of strong storms, however if we get any clearing in the afternoon, we might pick up an isolated strong storm, but in general this will mostly be just regular storms with maybe one strong storm that will break the monotony. The worst these storms will bring will be very brief heavy downpours and maybe some brief gusty winds (though we'll be seeing those pretty much all day).

Tomorrow night, that cold front will have crossed (or just about have) through the Toledo and Fort Wayne areas, and that will quickly drop your temps back down. If there are any lingering showers in the area at that time, they will mostly be very light and they will be over with before midnight. Erie and Buffalo will still see the chance of some rain showers and a few storms overnight tomorrow, however those will clear out of the region by Tuesday afternoon.

So, really, just a bit rainy here starting this afternoon for most places and lasting through tomorrow and possibly into Tuesday depending on where you are at. Storms will be regular and embedded within rain showers for the most part, however we might get an isolated strong storm in the more southern part of the forecast region, but I'll keep you updated on whether or not that will be likely or not.

Windy and rainy tomorrow, temps in the lower 60's for the southern part of the region. I'll keep you updated as always, and I'll have another post this afternoon and I'll try to get those extended forecasts updated once again this afternoon. I'll let you know on whether or not I am still going to expect any strong storms (chances are getting slimmer by the hour), so do check back this afternoon for updates and more. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.