Information you might need

(Surface chart and radar).

Ok, well the weather across the area is going to be a little active for the next 24-48 hours as we have a low pressure from the Plain's that is going to make things a bit interesting (for those of you who like the stormy weather). Now, this isn't going to be the outbreak of the century...nor will it be the outbreak of the year, but it could get a little intense here and there, and we might get some nice storms roll through the area...especially tomorrow night and Monday morning.

Now some of you are probably wondering about the extended forecasts and why the precip chances seem so high. Let me explain why.

For the past two days now, we've had this annoying front hanging around just to the south of the region. Yesterday this front did produce some good storms down in the Kentucky and West Virginia area, and eventually it will move up our way. Now, it wont give us those big storms like it did to Kentucky yesterday, but it could give us a shot of some precip as it moves into the region tonight. It'll be a warm front, so we might get some rain showers and/or a thunderstorm from it, but its a slight chance so dont cancel all your outdoors plans. This is why you see for those Sunday forecasts you see "slight chance in the morning...slight chance in the afternoon." The morning part/overnight tonight is because of that front that will push our way. Like I typed, slight chance but a chance that I am going to keep an eye on nonetheless.

Tomorrow afternoon as well, there are chances of precip for most places in the area. Why? Simple. With all that heating tomorrow, we could get some lift that might produce a storm or two in the afternoon. Also, that cold front will be working its way towards the area Sunday afternoon so it can pass through us tomorrow night and Monday morning, so ahead of that front we might get a little pop up thunderstorm or two. Otherwise tomorrow will be an alright day in terms of weather, with off and on clouds for a good chunk of the region and highs varying from the mid 70's to the lower 80's.

Now, remember that warm front I was typing about two paragraphs ago? Yes, good. That warm front is responsible for these warm temps...we're talking above average temps anywhere from 15-25° above average. Lets take a look at some of these numbers shall we:

Buffalo, tomorrow your normal high is only 51° for this time of the year, tomorrow it will be in the lower 70's...so about 20° above average.

Toledo, tomorrow your normal high is only 56°, and tomorrow I expect that you will get into the lower 80's...so about 15° above average.

So some much warmer weather in the area for tomorrow, but dont get use to it, because a slight cool down will come with the passage of this cold front. We'll get to that in just a moment.

We're then going to watch as this low pressure from the Plain's finally picks up speed and begins to move towards the Minnesota/Wisconsin area on the day Sunday. This will have a cold front (as all lows do, thanks to physisc) and that cold front will also start to work its way into the region on Sunday and Sunday evening. Now, because this low will go a little bit more northeasternly than I had originally expected, some places like Buffalo and perhaps Erie might not be seeing as strong of storms as originally expected, but you guys will still get some storms nonetheless.

Cold front works its way through the area on Sunday, and the SPC has the greatest threat for severe weather in places just to southwest of Green Bay. Green Bay you'll pick up some good storms, looks like you guys will see most of the storm action tomorrow afternoon.

Toledo and Fort Wayne, that cold front will start to lose some of its oomph as it heads eastward, but that doesn't mean you'll miss out on the action. Storms are really going to be likely anytime after midnight tomorrow night, and some of those storms will be strong. Biggest threat will be gusty winds and perhaps pellet sized hail. Those storms could go into the morning Monday, and then afterwards we'll just see some of those left over scattered rain showers until the front passes through, and there could be a few lingering showers behind the front.

Now before I go, I think now would be a good time to go over some things that you might want to know. Lets type about what "Severe thunderstorm watch" "Severe thunderstorm warning" "Tornado watch" and "Tornado warning" mean shall we.

First off, the only the NWS offices issue warnings...the SPC will take care of the watches when it comes to thunderstorms. Most of the cities we forecast for belong to a different national weather service...with some exceptions. Toledo, Cleveland and Erie you belong to the National Weather Service of Cleveland. NWS-CLE will issue warnings for your cities in that area. Fort Wayne belongs to the National Weather Service of Northern Indiana, NWS-IWX handles all warnings for that area. Detroit belongs to NWS-DET, Green Bay belongs to NWS-GRB, and of course Buffalo belongs to NWS-BUF.

Now, if the SPC (guys who issue severe weather forecasts as well) believe that the severe weather will happen, then they will issue a severe thunderstorm watch. They will do the watch county by county...but because of the media, it almost always appears to be a rectangle. The watches will usually be issued until 6 hours later, and they mean the following: storms could form that will produce wind gusts of 58+ mph, small hail and/or frequent cloud to ground lightning. The watches can be "hacked" as I call it, meaning that if a storm passes through and stabilizes air enough...then they will begin to chop the watch apart.

(Example of a severe thunderstorm watch...this image is 6 years old).

A severe thunderstorm warning is issued by whichever NWS office is incharge of the city/town that is about to get the storm. Now, a few years ago, the NWS would issue a warning county by county...but now they do it area by area. For example, the northern part of your county now is able to be under a warning, but the southern part might not. This is because the NWS wants to be more accurate with their warnings and not cause false alarms. A severe thunderstorm warning just basically means that there is a thunderstorm they believe (this is almost always dopplar radar indicated...we'll get to that in a minute) can produce one or more of the followning: Quarter sized hail, frequent cloud to ground lightning and wind gusts over 58 mph. Why 58 mph, I'll never know...couldn't settle for 60 I guess. Warnings generally do not last very long, and sometimes other NWS offices wont carry them over...happens a lot just south of Toledo where IWX and CLE meet. Severe thunderstorm warnins are almost always common anytime a watch is issued.

Now, a tornado watch gets way more credit than they deserve. Tornado watches are issued the same way as a severe thunderstorm watch is issued, only difference is a tornado watch means a storm could produce a tornado. Oh well. They generally are less frequent than a severe thunderstorm watch, but they also last longer sometimes. Only one time have I ever seen a tornado watch extended, and nothing happened anyways. Tornado watches mean that a storm could produce a tornado...but you'll mostly get severe thunderstorm warnings.

A tornado warning is the biggest annoyance for us here at GLWX. Tornado warnings are 90% of the time issued because the NWS sees something on the radar that looks like it might produce a tornado. Notice next time you see a tornado warning, and you'll more than likely see "NWS dopplar radar indicated a storm capable of producing a tornado" and you'll instantly go...wow, so there isn't one. A tornado warning can honestly be issued anytime you have a storm (same with a severe thunderstorm warning) but mainly they are only issued when a storm shows great vertical rotation (meaning part of it is rotation...precursor to a tornado), or it has a funnel cloud reported or thought to be in existance, or there is a legit tornado on the ground. Mainly however, we here in the Great Lakes only get the dopplar indicated rotation...which always means heavy downpours, small hail and a great lightning show.

So next time you see these warnings and watches...just note that they get more credit then they honestly desevere, they sort of kill the fun of a storm system, and they can be a great annoyance. Tornado warnings are the biggest offender, so next time you see that one is issued, just check back here at the GLWX and we'll let you know what the storm is really going to do.

I'll keep you updated as always, and naturally I will be back later this afternoon, moreso early evening to update you all once again on this situation. Not that I expect much of what I just typed to change, but I'll update those extended forecasts yet again sometime today around late afternoon or early evening. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.