GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Here we go...again...

23 April 2011

Here we go...again...

Because of the moisture and warmer temps in the region around Fort Wayne and just to the west of Toledo, we could pick up an isolated rain shower before noon, but anything that does form will be brief and very local. I didn't put it in the daily forecast because I am not thinking that it is that big of a concern right now.

The western part of the region right now is going to see a quick break in the rain showers this morning, however they will be coming back later this afternoon for the southern part of the region (Fort Wayne, Toledo and areas to the south and west of Detroit) as the next system moves into the area. Places to the east of Cleveland are going to see some rain showers and thunderstorms this morning, and then your break will happen this afternoon while you wait for the next system to reach you.

The rain showers will be trying to move into Fort Wayne, Toledo and southern areas of Detroit this afternoon, and we might get a few scattered rain showers here and there later today, but in general the biggest chance for rain wont come until this evening and overnight when that system gets nearer to us. This will be for Toledo and Fort Wayne and places not too far away from Detroit.

If you checked my udpated extended forecast, you will see that rain chances are high for the next couple days across the region. Trust me, that is because we have trough and low pressure after each other that will be effecting the region. I am planning on narrowing the times down this afternoon, so if I can get that done this afternoon, then I will surely update those extended forecast. But for right now, let me explain what is going on in the world of the Great Lakes weather.

We saw some storms last night in the southern part of the region (and still seeing them now in some spots) as the low pressure system started to head northeast. The cold front is still back in Chicago at this time, and we'll be seeing it move towards the region as the days goes on. Warm front sitting just to the north of Detroit, and that has risen those temps a lot higher than I had expected, sitting in the 60's right now in Fort Wayne and Toledo and even near Cleveland. Now here is when things get interesting...

Once this front passes through the region, it will slow down and become virtually stationary just to the east of the region...in fact, it could very well become stationary over Erie and/or Buffalo. What does this mean...simple...rain. This trailing cold front from the low pressure we are seeing now is going to be under the complete control of this low pressure for the next couple days. This low pressure is going to make a strong turn northeast later today, and when it does so, that cold front is going to slow down (physics, I wont go into detail). The cold front will then just "chill" around the region and allow quite a bit of precip to effect the region. Depending on when and where exactly this front is going to slow down will depend on whatever the low pressure does this morning. So that will be something that I will be keeping an eye on and that is why those precip chances are so high.

(GFS showing the slowing down of the cold front the best).

Temps on the plus side are going to be warmer if that is any consolation for you all. However, as we know by now that during this time of the year, warm weather doesn't come free.

So lets type about this next system shall we. The next system is a weaker low pressure down in the south right now (along the cold front) and that isn't going to be as strong as the one that we are seeing right now. In fact, this low pressure will probably only produce thunderstorms for the next 18 or so hours in our area. The low is going to move northeast towards Pennsylvania, and that will assist in keeping that front stationary for the next couple days in our region.

Make sense? Basically...it is going to be rainy for the next couple of days across the region. Even Green Bay will start to get in on some of that rain action by midweek. So the next couple of days will not be favourable for outdoor activities unless you enjoy doing them out in the rain.

So you know, the rain isn't going to be constantly falling, it will more or less just be scattered rain showers that are going to come and go. Sort of like what we saw yesterday, only a few more breaks in between those rain showers I am thinking.

As I mentioned earlier, I will work on narrowing those times down this afternoon for the afternoon, and if I get them done in time, then I'll update the forecasts. I will have another update coming up for you in the afternoon however, so do be looking for that. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I will have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.