GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Evening Update, Forecast review and lack of storms...all in one post.

11 April 2011

Evening Update, Forecast review and lack of storms...all in one post.

With the exception of those lingering rain showers over in the Erie and Buffalo area, tonight will be a rather clear night across the region. Back to those rain showers, those should and will clear out around midnight tonight in the Buffalo and Erie area, and that is already starting to happen.

Well yesterday as we all remember, was a warm one. Most places saw temps about 25-30° above average. In fact, yesterday Fort Wayne Indiana hit 84° which tied their old daily record of 84° set back in 1930. Other records were broken and tied across the region as well. Toledo hit 84°, breaking the old record of 83° set back in 1977. Erie Pennsylvania hit 82° yesterday, which broke their old record of 81° set in 1945. Green Bay however did not beat a record, they hit 76° and needed to hit 79° to break the old record set back in 1977. Detroit, same for you, you only hit 83° yesterday, and you needed to hit 86° to break the old record set back in 1977. Buffalo...you hit 77° but needed to hit 82° to break the old record set in 1945. Cleveland...you hit 81° and fell 1° short of breaking the old record of 82° set in 1978.

So with yesterdays storms what exactly happened? Well, I still have to do some more review on them, but I will tell you that part of the problem from what it appears to be was the lack of lift. The storms really start firing up with that day time heating yesterday and that helped those storms form...but it didn't help them stay alive once the sun had set. Sure, temps and dewpoints were in fairly good shape across much of the region, but in general...there wasn't much lift. Now obviously, I still need more time to figure out what else caused these storms to form.

Now as far as the forecasting for the storms go...well, lets just say that I got a little over confident in the storms ability. First off, right away I should've noted that when those morning/afternoon pop up storms didn't form...then something probably wasn't really going to happen. Also, when the disturbance in Indiana didn't do anything, that should've been another indicator that perhaps this system was going to be a dud. I believe one of the main things I overlooked was the path of the low pressure system and where it was going to go. I believe I had it forecasted too far south and instead it decided to book it a bit more to the northeast. The other problem was the lack of really going in depth with some of the extended forecasts and taking time on Fort Wayne and Green Bay forecasts. By what was it...Friday night, I had believed that my forecasts where pretty solid and wouldn't change much, so when indications started to come in from my computer models (also another problem) that the storm was going to shift a bit...I was hesitant in changing the forecast I had spent quite a bit of time on. Had I changed the forecasts, the term "strong" would've been removed from all city forecasts east of Fort Wayne and Green Bay would've had it added on Saturday morning (and that was a strong possibility, I just didn't feel it was necessary at the time).

The other major problem with this forecast was the over usage on my part on computer models. I never use computer models for a forecast less than 24 hours from the present. And unfortunetly, Sunday morning I decided to change that rule and go ahead and use them. Models wanted a strong storm...my old fashioned methods did not. So this will definetly be the last time I will use computer models on a short term forecast. So with all that being typed, we learn from our mistakes and make sure that we do not repeat them. Next time, I will make sure that I get those storm forecasts correct. Now on to some weather.

So now, on to tonight and tomorrows weather. Cold front finally crossing through the region right now, it is about to enter Cleveland. Tonight, temps are going go to continue to fall, and most of us (minus Green Bay) will see lows tonight in the mid to upper 30's with Green Bay being in the low to mid 30's tonight. Skies are going to gradually clear out through tonight and the morning tomorrow, and by the afternoon at the latest most of us should be mostly clear with temps hovering again around 60°...with some exceptions like Erie and Buffalo.

In general though, it is going to be a calm night across much of the region, and we're going to see those temps fall to about normal tonight. Skies clear out and for the day tomorrow things should be looking mostly clear and not too bad temp wise as always.

I'll have more coming up in the morning around 6 a.m., but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.