Enjoy the rain while it lasts. I know it may seem a little harsh to do so, but look at it like this: When it is the middle of July and it is all Hell outside, with temps in the 90's and dew points higher than imaginable...not a cloud in the sky and there hasn't been rain in the past two weeks...you'll wish for this weather. You'll wish for this weather as the egg smolders on the sidewalk...the interior of your car melts as the sun literally bakes your car away. Pigs will turn into bacon instantly as they fry in the sun, you can literally smell it a mile away. And God forbid something gets ran over on the side of the road...oh, the smell. The heat...the heat exhaustion...the hospital bill for the heat exhaustion. So, enjoy this rainy weather while it lasts because you know what is coming in a couple of months. Now lets type about some weather shall we.
Quite a bit to type about this evening, however much of it will go without saying. For example...rain in the region tonight.
Looking at a low pressure system coming up from Indiana, at this time it should now be in southern Illinois, and that low pressure is going to cross into northwestern Ohio late tonight and early tomorrow morning. With it of course will be its warm front (which is presently a stationary front over Indiana) and that warm front will hang around this evening, keeping those temps up for the most part. Now, there are some heavy type rain showers just to the west of the Fort Wayne area, and those are going to move east-northeast throughout the night tonight and that will help to keep those temps cool in the Fort Wayne and Toledo area. What does that mean? Simple really: the cooling of the rain will keep the temps cool. Physics, and it just takes too many sentences to explain properly.
Now, this same system is going to cause for some problems in around the Buffalo area tonight. Buffalo you guys are under a watch right now, and that is going to be in effect for a couple more hours...actually it goes until 10.00 p.m. EDT for you guys and it might be hatched away a little. There will still be a chance for storms and rain showers tonight however, because that low pressure is going to really keep those temps warm in your part of the area. Seeing as how I do not expect the majority of the rain showers and thunderstorms to arrive until after midnight, I am going to keep the lows tonight in the 60's because there wont be much to cool you guys off.
Alright, now here is where the wording gets a little tricky for this evening so bare with it here alright. As this low pressure moves through, the air will be a tad bit more unstable than usual. Already, there is a watch literally just to the south of the forecast area. This watch is mainly for there for one reason...spin ups. There aren't any organized storm lines at this time, nor do I expect there to be any. However, down in central Indiana (which I dont forecast for) there will be times when a storm could briefly (and I will add the "!" to it for emphasis) have some slight rotation to it. BRIEFLY! So far this evening, I have only seen one such warning and that was down in Indianapolis.
(The pink circle shows the storm that caused the warning...the storm appears as strong now as it was during the warning...an example of a "spin up", but not all small storms like that are spin ups, so dont get excited next time you see one that looks like that).
Why this is important: Because Fort Wayne is going to be very close to this action. If anybody has a chance of seeing a warning tonight, it will be you guys, but I believe the chances are so small that I didn't really put it in your forecast to be honest with you. The warning, if it does happen, will come up so quickly and be so short lived, that by the time you realize it...the warning will be over. But in general, this will all be rain showers and I am not expecting that anybody in Fort Wayne has anything to be concerned about, but I am just letting you know in case, because we are so close to the "action" of the storms tonight. I know the past two paragraphs are a little vague, but just to safe I am simply letting you all know despite the small chance. This statement applies to some of the areas of NW Ohio, Toledo being excluded, however just like Fort Wayne...the chances are so slim that I wont even bother putting them in the forecast.
Why do I think this: Because with low pressures like this, especially ones with a triple point (where three fronts or troughs...or whatever meet the low) like this one, there could be some slight shear (I am going to get technical for you) and this could cause some slight rotation in these systems. Actually, we've all seen systems like this before, and usually they happen in the spring, most warnings go unnoticed because they are associated only with small storms and rain showers. Also, the centre of the low as well is rather defined, and sometimes will cause a little spin on some of the clusters not too far away from the centre. It is like a Hurricane...only much smaller and nowhere near as strong. But ahead of hurricanes, sometimes you get some small spinning on those bands, and sometimes some of the storms get a little strong but only very briefly. Remember, a hurricane is a very intense low pressure system...not like the one we're getting now.
So, the past three paragraphs only apply really to the areas just to the south of Fort Wayne and very south of Toledo (moreso southwest of Toledo say, Napoleon or Defiance), though like I said the chances are so small, that I didn't even put it into tonights forecast. Just a typical side-show to low pressures like this, and rarely does something more than flooding and lightning come from systems like this...now if we're down in Tennessee and North Carolina, then the whole story changes for tonight, but fortunetly we aren't there and I dont forecast for them so we're all good. So basically all I am typing is that it is a small chance, but not a big deal. Just keep the weather radio on if it makes you feel safe, or check back for updates if I feel that an overnight update is necessary.
Otherwise for the region tonight. Going to see some moderate to heavy rain showers moving into the Fort Wayne and Toledo area tonight, and there could be some embedded storms with those rain showers, but nothing really too extraordinary. Just some typical spring rain and maybe some flashes of lightning here and there with thunder. Detroit and Cleveland, those rain showers are going to move in late tonight, and then for Buffalo you guys will see a chance for rain showers and thundertorms late tonight and some could be strong. Lows tonight will seem like a high with temps only falling into the 60's. Erie will be seeing rain showers and thundestorms too, only yours will show up a little late as well.
So a somewhat rainy night tonight in the area, looks like most of the big storm action will happen down to the south of the region, so it should all just be mostly rain for us. I'll keep you updated as always, and if nothing else, then there will be the typical morning update in the morning around 5.30 a.m. or so. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.
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