GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Next system on the way

06 March 2011

Next system on the way

Well, we got some snow across the region last night, a little more than I had expected in the Toledo area. About an inch or so of snow fell in that area last night. I do want to apologize for not updating any of you last night, information regarding the snow would've helped. I will make sure that updating is made during events like that. And we have another system that could impact us on Wednesday and Thursday across the region. Before we get to that, lets talk about what happened weather wise last night.

So, what happened last night in terms of the weather? Simple actually. We got the backside of the low pressure. I do not know why I didn't think about it when making my forecasts yesterday morning, that if we got the backside we'd get some snow from it. When the low pressure passed through the region, that meant that some of us would be getting snow, and like I said, a common sense item that I have no idea why I over looked.

As I was talking about on the forecast discussions (www.glwx.blogspot.com) this low pressure is looking somewhat interesting on the GFS model for this time of the year, but I doubt it will do half of what it says it will do. Mostly looks like it'll be another rain event.

But for now, a high pressure will be controlling the weather through Tuesday night, and then we will start to see those rain showers again possible in the southern areas of the region for Wednesday. As I said, this is looking like mostly a rain event. But here is the biggest question I will let you know about: Where will the low pass through?

(GFS model run from 7pm last night, this image is what it expects for 7am Wednesday).

As of now, I have the most likely scenario that the low will cut through central Michigan (between both peninsula's) and that means that some places like Fort Wayne and maybe Detroit could get a little wintry mix from the low once it crosses through. But it wont be anything like an ice storm or a blizzard. No, this will mostly be a rain, then some snow behind this system (like what we saw last night).

So, that question of the exact track is rather crucial to make a forecast for Thursday, but hopefully by this evening I will have my tracks finalized and we'll have that question solved. So do check back for that.

Anyways, other than the low pressure that will form out of the Plain's on Tuesday, nothing much will be happening in the region for at least the next 48 hours. I'll be keeping you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.