Above is a water vapor satellite image...basically showing the moisture in the air. Now the red circle is about where the low pressure is right now, and this will be the low that will cause us the fun time as early as Tuesday night across much of the region.
So, what is going on? Well, first off let me tell you that this system is going to be nothing more than a rain maker and possibly some light snow behind it in some places. It wont be producing severe weather, nor will it be a real big flood concern...yet...but it will be enough to help bump up those rain fall totals. So basically the biggest threat this system will bring is some wet roads...nothing much more in all honesty. The reason I've been talking about this system a lot is because after 3 days of weather bordem...you need something to break the bordem.
The clouds will be rolling in tonight through the day tomorrow, and by tomorrow evening we'll be seeing those rain showers move into the area, first in the extreme western areas, and then gradually they'll make their way into Fort Wayne and Toledo by Wednesday morning, and Detroit by mid morning Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon, Erie and Buffalo will get them, and then Toronto by mid afternoon Wednesday. Now, of course these times could change a little bit, so do keep an eye on the extended forecast and I'll be updating those extended later this evening as well.
I want to show you the models, give you an idea of what I am looking at incase you didn't get a chance to see the forecast discussions on www.glwx.blogspot.com
This is just the GFS model, one of the three main computer models I take a peak at when making a forecast that is longer than 48 hours out. For the record, 90% of my short term forecasts (48 hours or less) are made without computer models. A little old fashioned forecast nostalgia, but whose complaining. Now, as you can see by this model, its a four panel (also comes in individual panels for those detailed forecasts). 12 hour increments as well.
Now, 00z WED is 7 p.m. EST tonight, and you can see down in New Mexico we have that low pressure forming. By 12z WED (7 a.m. tomorrow) that low pressure will deepen as it crosses into the Texas panhandle. The big blue bulk there over Kansas, that'll most likely be snow, and everything to the south of that low pressure will be rain. At 00z THU we'll watch that low cross into Kansas, and you can see those rain showers really taking shape as does the low pressure. Look at those clusters of blue, to me that tells me that will mostly be rain seeing as how it is ahead of the low.
12z THU we'll see that classic "comma" shape, and that is when we could start to see some rain.
Now, that is the GFS, I also use the NAM and the GEM/CMC (GEM/CMC are escentially the same thing). I wont show you those two right now, due to posting space and times. But you get the general idea. All three of those models go beyond an 84 hour forecast, but I am only showing you the first 48.
Looking at mostly a rain event on Wednesday across much of the region and that'll go into Thursday as well.
Keep checking back for updates, because I'll have them. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!
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