GREAT LAKES WEATHER: What happened?!

22 February 2011

What happened?!

I am sure that some of you in the Toledo and Fort Wayne area came home from work yesterday after noon and were asking the question "What the hell is going on?". Well, dont worry, I was asking the same question as I was shoveling the 3-4 inches of my expected 1-2 inches. Comical.

Actually before I go any further, let me tell you that before the snow began in Toledo and Fort Wayne, the freezing rain had accumulated on top of the grass - not under and in it - but on the top of the grass. Most people have their grass about an inch of the ground itself. So this automatically gave the snow an inch of height when it accumulated. If you measure the snow, you'll see it is only about 3-4 inches, but it appears that it is about 4-5 inches. Looks can be odd. If that doesn't make since, maybe I can make some diagrams and explain it better.

The biggest problem with the somewhat incorrectness of this forecast was my under-estimating of the systems potential. I didn't believe it would be able to produce much because a lot of the surface charts where actually showing rain...I should've realized that the temps were lower in the forecasted area, and that would in turn produce snow. Oops.

The low pressure that was effecting us, actually went a couple millibars stronger than what I had expected. It went down to 999 mbs at one point, and I only had it at 1001 mbs when it came to us in the region. The winds also helped in blowing the snow around, which made it look worse than what it actually was.

Remember, for this system, Toledo and Fort Wayne were by far the trickiest places to forecast for. The two systems that were effecting those two places were very tightly packed and going to pass near to the areas. This made for any slight shift in the course of the pressure extremely important. The system shifted a little bit, but in general it took a straight a WNW - ESE track south of the area.

These two systems were definetly fun to track and forecast for, however I do want to apologize for the lack of postings. You must know that these posts take about 20-30 minutes to type up and get ready. That means 20-30 minutes less to make a forecast. Hence why forecasting making starts at 5:15 a.m. in the morning so I can get these posts up to you. Ironically we also were short a couple meteorologists during this weekend which made it even harder. I do apologize for the lack of coverage.

But today, calmer weather will proceed over the region, mostly cloudy in Fort Wayne and Toledo to start out with, and hopefully we'll see some breaks in those clouds this afternoon. But tomorrow will be the day for some of that snow to melt in the areas of Fort Wayne and Toledo and we'll see highs in the upper 30's with sunny skies.

I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.