GREAT LAKES WEATHER: A tricky Toledo forecast

20 February 2011

A tricky Toledo forecast

Well, for the most part this system has been easy forecasting: snow in most places. However the trickiest part for me is trying to get Erie and Toledo's forecast down. Right now, the wintry mix is located right over NW Ohio, and that will pose a problem later tonight. The warm front will cut close to the area, and places to the south of the forecast area will see rain. However the biggest question of tonight is this: Will Toledo get rain or just freezing rain?

This morning, charts and other weather information was leading me to believe that Toledo area would have a transition into rain showers after midnight. That is still a possibility, but a hard one. Temps tonight will be steady in the lower 30's. If the temp goes above 32° then we'll see rain, and if the temp drops below 32° then we'll see freezing rain...if the temp is right at 32° then it should be interesting. However, for the most part I am thinking the temp will only slightly deviate between 31° and 33°, so obviously a little tricky there.

The bulk of the precip will be a general WNW-ESE track across the region, so those snow showers will cut close to the Toledo area. I am expecting that by tomorrow some of those snow showers might make it into the Toledo area which will give some slight accumulation to the area, but nothing more than an inch or two at best.

The biggest player tonight will be this obnoxious warm front presently located in SE Ohio. If this front pushes up northward passed the Ohio/Michigan line then everything will be messed up...most things will be rain and snow fall totals for Detroit will even be effected. But for now, I am expecting that warm front to barely stay to the south of the Toledo area which is why we'll see those temps in the lower 30's for much of the evening.

It sounds very vague and unsure, but right now, that is pretty much what it is for the Toledo area. That warm front is a big player, any slight deviation in the path and a lot of things will change. But for now, I am going to say that it'll be a wintry mix, with some rain here and there and then snow tomorrow morning and afternoon. If things do change drastically I'll of course keep you updated on that.

So, all this precip changing over to snow sometime tomorrow morning, and we'll pick up about an inch or two of accumulation in the Toledo area. But tonight will be questionable. Either way, it wont be a whole lot of freezing rain, but just enough to make those sidewalks slippery if you aren't paying attention.

Of course, like I always type, I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you. Tomorrow morning, I'll type about what to expect for the morning and afternoon tomorrow and whether or not we'll be a seeing a decent cool down across the region.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.