GREAT LAKES WEATHER: This month...

23 February 2011

This month...

This month has been filled with some of the most tricky low pressures that I have ever had to forecast for, but oh well. That is all the fun of meteorology. Well, I have been taking a look at the weather maps for the better part of the past couple hours...it only took one ABBA and Beatles CD, and part of a Beach Boys CD to get me through it all, but I believe that I have a good part of this forecasted. Let us type about this system for a minute...

A minute.

Ha- joke. Ok. The low pressure hasn't formed yet, however it is becoming visibile on the upper level wind charts. We do have the first low pressure, a weaker low, that will pass through the area later tonight and tomorrow, and that will give us the first round of precip. This will come mostly in the form of rain. However, this second low pressure will also begin to work with the first low pressure. Stay with me. This will make for some scattered precip across the southern areas of the region tomorrow, give or take a few showers here and there. But the real excitement will come tomorrow night.

Tomorrow night, with the cooling of the air and the passage of the low pressure, we'll switch over to snow showers. Now, this wont happen instantly, we'll probably get a little bit of a wintry mix. The longer we have a wintry mix however, the less snow we'll see. And that is something I dont feel like explaining right now. However, if things go according to plan, we wont see a whole lot of mix, and we should wake up to snow falling in the morning. I am not expecting this to the end of the world, it'll be like an Alberta Clipper system...only on steroids and not coming from Alberta.

For Fort Wayne I am going to call for about 1-3 inches of snow. Toledo, you're looking about 2-4 inches of total snow fall. Detroit, about 2-3 inches of total snow fall. So as you can see, the region wont get impacted much.

NOW THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WITH THIS (like the caps, eh, emphasis) will be if this low shifts. Already, you can see that places in the southern part of Ohio are under flood watches because they'll be getting mostly rain. So, naturally, the more this thing shifts, the more the predicted snow amounts will change. At this rate, we'll have to wait and see what this low does when it goes through Oklahoma or Texas. The next 12 hours for me will be the most important in determining the path, but for now, I am going to keep things the way I have them and I do not expect them to change much.

As always, to see what I am looking at in the world of Great Lakes, for the heck of it if you're really bored, check www.glwx.blogspot.com but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them, especially in the morning.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.