GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Finally!

31 January 2011

Finally!

(This is a rough graphic, make sure your life does not depend on this).

Prepare to be awed, prepare to be ooed, as we'll finally see our system get ready to make its way tonight. Before we go any further, let me remind you that this isn't the end of the world. Enjoy the system, no panicing, we get these every year. Now let me explain what is going on for tonight.

Actually, because of the intensity of this storm, I have decided that I will name this system ahead of time (whether or not it hits 995 mbs or not) to recieve the Russian female name of "Darya" meaning "winner" just because I like the sound of the name.

We'll see a warm front make its way northward into our region later this evening. That warm front...I'd call it worse, but I dont want to offend readers...is responsible for all this confusion right now. As that warm front moves northward, we'll see those steady snow showers arrive. Tonight, for much of the areas between Fort Wayne and Toledo we'll see scattered snow showers this evening, about 1-3 inches in most places in and around the above mentioned.

Now, I will admit the wind is a nice surprise for this evening, I didn't see that coming...guess I overlooked it. But we'll see these semi-gusty winds stick with us until Wednesday, and then on Wednesday they'll become just plain gusty.

Now, tomorrow will be a somewhat tricky forecast. Our warm front move out of the region, however our low pressure (Darya) down near the Gulf will be riding along it. This means that we'll have a very brief break in the snow showers probably around noon tomrrorow in Toledo and Fort Wayne areas. This break will not last long. Will it be a no-snow event in those couple hours, I am not sure, but I imagine that the snow will let up quite a bit in that time. But, by late afternoon and early evening, those steady snow showers will return to the region.

Tomorrow night and Wednesday morning for much of the area will be the biggest day for the snow. Everyone from Fort Wayne to Buffalo will see a good chunk of their snow fall during this 12 hour period. Anywhere from 2-5 inches could fall during this time depending on where you're at.

Darya will then quickly deepen (get stronger) as it crosses into Indiana, and she might even dip below 995 mbs for a few hours. In the process of this, Darya will speed up and start to head Northeast. By Wednesday afternoon, I expect Darya to be over Lake Erie (or near to it) and it'll start to weaken a little. As she does this, we'll still see quite a bit of snow on the day Wednesday. I believe that it is safe to say that on early Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon she'll dump about 3-7 inches of snow, depending on where you're at.

So lets take a look at some of Jacob and my predicted snow fall totals.
Toledo: 8-12 inches
Detroit: 10-18 inches
Fort Wayne: 10-17 inches
Buffalo: 12-24 inches
Erie: 11-19 inches

Erie and Buffalo, lets type about you for a minute. Now, you'll be getting the same stuff that the rest of us (minus Green Bay) will be getting, only afterwards, you might get some lake effect snow. That is why Jacob and I have put Erie and Buffalo at higher snow fall totals then the rest. They'll be getting the same system and mostly the same times (give or take an hour) but it'll be the winds behind the system that could give you guys a few inches of lake effect.

Speaking of the winds, we'll have some much cooler air behind this system. Toledo and Fort Wayne will go down to zero (or possibly below) for an overnight low on both Wednesday night and Thursday night. Winds will also be strong, gusting to perhaps 40 mph at times on Wednesday and Thursday. This will really put the wind chills below 0° and possibly near -10° for quite a bit of time on those two days.

As far as I am expecting for schools across the region. Well, closings will be likely mostly on Wednesday and Thursday, as blowing snow and low temps will be the biggest concern. Tomorrow, that is questionable depending on where you're at, however I do believe that Wednesday and Thursday we'll see several closings of schools across a lot of the region.

Also, if you're going to be flying in or out of Detroit, Cleveland, Fort Wayne and even Chicago, it'd be a good idea to check ahead because I am going to be guessing that flights will be cancelled as early as tomorrow afternoon.

So, this wont be a record breaker by a long shot, so again, lets have some fun with this system and enjoy it. We've survived snow before, so why should this be any different?

I'll keep you up to date on this system as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them throughout the day tomorrow.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.