GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Biggest concern

29 January 2011

Biggest concern

Well, if you read last nights post, then you probably read about the system I was tracking. Well, this morning the charts have me to believe that the low will pass thruogh Cleveland, which means that most of us in the region could see some snow.

The only problem is this: Will it go to New England? That is a concern for those of you who want a snow day. Overnight, the charts had me shift my prediction literally about 100 miles to the east, and that was just in 12 hours. As we've been seeing all season, most of these lows end up missing us and then head over to New England - thanks in part to a high pressure in Greenland.

Right now, however, if nothing else changes, then most of us here in the region will get some kind of precip from this system. It will form down near the Gulf in an area that could take the low directly through Cleveland, and then it'd turn northeast towards New England. How much snow would we get if nothing changed? Well, it is hard to put a number on it right now, because like I said, It would end up changing at leats twice.

On the plus side, as long as the low stays to the east and south of much of us here in the region, then we'd get snow - not rain - which is always a good thing.

This wont be a blizzard by a long shot, but it will be a nice snow if nothing changes, like I keep typing. Obviously, I'll have to monitor this system closely over the next couple days. Timing on this low right now have it to be sometime around Thursday is when it would start impacting the region.

Now, we could see some snow before that however, as we'll see a disturbance move thruogh the area on Tuesday. This will just bring scattered snow showers to much of the region from Fort Wayne to Buffalo. I am not expecting much accumulation from this system however, maybe about an inch at best.

Now, last night, a lot of you went to bed expecting to wake up to about 1-3 inches of snow on the ground. Well, that didn't really happen for the people in Toledo and Fort Wayne, and I do apologize for that. I knew the heaviest of the snow was going to be in central Michigan, but it looks as if I over estimated the intensity of this system a little bit. I gave my numbers too much slack when forecasting the snow fall totals. So 1-3 inches ended up being a dusting for most places around Fort Wayne and Toledo. I do apologize, and I'll make sure that it doesn't happen again.

Today in Toledo and Fort Wayne we'll see some cloudy skies and a chance for a couple scattered snow showers here and there, but in all honesty, I can not imagine us getting anything over an inch (even a half inch of snow if we're lucky) at this point.

So, a chance for snow showers on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday for the Great Lakes region. And then we're going to watch as we could get impacted by a good sized weather system on Thursday and possibly Friday.

I'll keep you up to date as always on the present weather and the system that could impact us later this week, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because we'll have them throughout the day today.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.