GREAT LAKES WEATHER: A tale of a forecast

11 December 2010

A tale of a forecast

Once upon a time in the far off regions of the midwest there was a low pressure...

Alrighty let's get right down to the forecast here because I am sure a lot of you are wondering what is going to be happening. Here are our forecasts for today, tonight and early tomorrow morning that we here at the GLWX have made, so let's take a look:

Toledo: Increasing clouds throughout the day today, you'll have highs near 40°. Later this afternoon, we'll see scattered rain showers move into the area, and those will probably melt most our little remaining snow fall on the ground. As the sun sets those rain showers will start to mix after about 8 p.m. Around the midnight hours, we'll see those rain showers finally turn over to snow showers. Overnight tonight in the Toledo area we'll see snow accumulations of around 1 inch. Tomorrow morning is when those snow showers will be frequent. We'll see accumulations of around 1-3 inches tomorrow morning to tomorrow around noon. So a total snow fall accumulation will be about 2-4 inches. Nothing to be overly hyped about because it'll be a light to moderate snow fall for much of tonight and tomorrow morning.

Fort Wayne: About the same as Toledo. We'll see increasing clouds throughout the area today with highs near about 40°. Around the afternoon hours we'll start to see those scattered rain showers move into the region. By this evening, we'll start to see a mix of rain/snow and then tranistioning into snow showers by about 10 p.m. or so. Overnight tonight in the Fort Wayne region, we'll see snow accumulations around an inch. Now, tomorrow morning and afternoon is when the best snow will fall, and we could see about 2-4 inches of snow fall in the Fort Wayne region. The north in the Fort Wayne region you go, the more snow you'll get. But for now, we'll call a total snow accumulation of about 3-5 inches, some places might see about 6 inches.

Erie: We'll call it mostly cloudy today with highs in the upper 30's, near 40°. Clouds will thicken up around the evening hours. Then tonight, rain showers moving in and then mixing with some sleet after about 10 p.m. or so. Tomorrow morning is when most of those remaining rain/snow showers will finally turn over into all snow. Accumulation around an inch or so with highs in the mid 30's. Tomorrow night is when the majority of the snow will begin to really fall, and we could see about 1-3 inches of snow. However, on Monday we'll start to see lake effect snow fall in the Erie region, so that requires further updates on that.

Buffalo: We have a storm coming to the region, but at this point I do not expect this to be a giant storm for the region. Sunday the precipitation will start out as rain, then mix with and eventually turn over to snow Sunday afternoon. once it turns over to snow, there will be no question about the precipitation type you will receive. It will snow Sunday night through Monday night, and while it will not be very heavy, it will add up. I see Buffalo getting 2-4 inches, maybe 6 inches in places. After the storm moves by, the Lake Effect snow will really start up again, and with the winds we could be looking at a serious problem. Keep checking back in for more information, as I feel that the most snow you will get will be lake effect.

Detroit: You have the potential to be hit fairly hard with this storm. I expect the National Weather Service will either put out a Winter Weather Advisory or a Winter Storm Warning for your region, as you are expected to get between 5-10 inches of snow from this storm. The exact track will be crucial to seeing whether you will be near the 5 inch side or the 10 inch side of that range, but you will be seeing a lot of snow. It will snow all day Sunday with the winds really picking up and blowing the snow around. Drifts will get very high with all the wind. Monday the main low pressure system moves out and lake effect snow will be setting up as well, to dump more snow on what has already fallen. Keep it tuned here for more information about the incoming storm, and you can expect a lot of snow.

Green Bay :is most likely going to be one of the cities hit hardest by this snow storm. You are in direct path of the north part of the storm, meaning that you are likely to be in the heaviest snow belt. A Winter Storm Warning is out for the entire region including downtown Green Bay, as between 8-12 inches of snow can be expected from this storm. The heaviest of the snow will fall tomorrow afternoon into the overnight hours, and then the winds will pick up as well. Drifts will begin to form, and blizzard conditions could be possible for short amounts of time. Also, snow drifts with all the wind could pile above 2 feet in areas, because of how powdery the snow will be. Behind the storm, it will get much colder, and the winds will really pick up even more. Keep it tuned here for the latest information, and expect very dangerous conditions with all the snow. Expect travel delays and road closures, and make sure to keep it safe out there.

We'll keep you all up to date as always on this system as it moves across the Great Lakes region. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.