GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Round 2 and a snow total forecast

10 December 2010

Round 2 and a snow total forecast

The forecasted snow totals are posted a couple paragraphs down...

Well round 1 was that first system we had last night...of course that wasn't really much. However now we'll be moving into our second system which is going to be a very tight forecast for places across the Great Lakes region. It wont be tonight so much as it will be tomorrow. Ok, so let's take a brief look at what I am expecting here for this weekend and then a bit later we'll take a look at some forecasts.

Right now, setting up in the state of Montana is our low pressure system, presently at 1004 mbs. Our low pressure friend has a friend of her own, a high pressure all the way up in the Northwestern Terriories of Canada. As weird as it may sound to you all, this high all the way up in northern Canada will start to slide down this evening, and in doing so it's going to help kick up our low pressure friend and cause it to deepen some more. This high pressure in the N.T. of Canada will be responsible for our cool weather at the beginning of the week where low temperatures will be in the single digits for a low on Monday and possibly Tuesday.

So what can we expect for the weekend across the Great Lakes region? Well, all afternoon I have been watching the NWS post Winter Weather Watches and Advisories for a good chunk of the Great Lakes region. Right now, Green Bay is under a winter storm warming and it's possible that within the next 24 hours, about 5-12 inches of snow (see the forecast totals for entire region in just a few paragraphs)will have fallen in and around the Green Bay area. So obviously a strong system if you're to the north of the predicted path.

Right now, the path is predicted to cross through Central Michigan, which is why the NWS has posted Winter Weather Watches for a good chunk of Central Michigan and up to the U.P.

The low pressure will cross into the Great Lakes region by tomorrow afternoon, and we could see rain showers in places like Toledo and Fort Wayne and maybe even Detroit. The rain showers will be on and off throughout the afternoon and will then transition into snow showers by the midnight hours. Here is where the numbers get tricky.

Here are our expected snow fall totals for some of our forecast cities by Sunday afternoon. However there will be other cities getting snow on Sunday, and we'll talk about that within the next paragraph.

Green Bay: 5-10 inches of snow possible.
Grand Rapids: 4-8 inches of snow possible.
Fort Wayne: 3-5 inches possible.
Detroit: 2-6 inches of snow possible.
Toledo: 2-4 inches possible.
Sault Ste. Marie: 1-3 inches of snow possible.

On Sunday we'll be watching the system end its parade in the western Great Lakes and we'll watch it move into places like Cleveland by early Sunday morning and Erie, Pa. by Sunday morning hours. However, just because the system will be there on Sunday, doesn't mean that it wont plaque you all. Ahahha, no - no...I am not going to be nice to you on this forecast unless you like snow. Heavy Lake effect snow is possible after Sunday as strong winds off of the lakes will be hindering the region from South Bend, Indiana on up to Buffalo, NY.

We'll have more to talk about in the morning, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.