GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Rain for all and all for rain

21 November 2010

Rain for all and all for rain

As mentioned yesterday, there are going to be three low pressures that will impact the Great Lakes region this week. They are all going to follow a similar path, and each one will attempt to drop our temperature about 10°.

The first low will be forming down in Kansas within the next 12-18 hours. This low will head NE towards Iowa by this evening. It will be here that it will start to draw up some moisture and warmer temperatures. Rain will be falling from Michigan to the arrowhead of Minnesota. The low will deepen a bit more as it passes over Lake Superior. This will be by tomorrow morning, where rain will begin to develop in Indiana all the way up to the U.P. of Michigan. The low will then head into Ontario near Hudson Bay.

At the same time on Monday morning, down in Kansas again, a second low will form, we'll call it "#2" for now. #2 will quickly follow a similar path and as it does so, it'll deepen and pass over Lake Michigan by Monday night. It is this low that will give us the rain anytime after about midnight (so like late Monday night/early Tuesday morning). This low will then quickly deepen as it moves off into Ontario as well.

A high pressure will briefly settle over the Great Lakes region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, giving us a brief break in the rain.

However, by Wednesday night and Thursday morning, we could see two more low pressures form. One in North Dakota and the other in...you guessed it, Kansas. The two lows will work together in a way, however they will stray away from each other, so how much rain we could see in the NW Ohio area is questioable at this point.

So, what does this mean for Monday?

Erie, PA: Scattered rain showers are likely for most of the day. Highs in the lower 60's.

Toledo, OH: Scattered rain showers are likely all day, highs in the mid 60's.

Fort Wayne, IN: Isolated rain showers likely in the day, but it will be in the evening that you guys could see some storms moving. Highs in the mid 60's.

This isn't the end of the world, nor is going to be a record breaker. The only record breaking we could see is me repeating the same thing over and over again, and maybe we'll break some high temperatures tomorrow. But otherwise, just a clash of two air masses battling for seasonal control. I'll keep you all up to date on this as it happens, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.