GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Here we go again...

11 November 2010

Here we go again...

Alrighty folks, well could we see some fog tomorrow morning for the NW Ohio/SE Michigan and NE Indiana? Simple terms, 50/50. The winds however are going to be the biggest factor. If the winds blow from the northeast, we'll see fog, if the winds gust from any other direction, we most likely will not see the fog.

This is a tricky forecast, and fog is my weakest point when it comes to any forecasting. Remember, I am predicting something that has no defined start and end point and no defined area.

Right now our winds are from the ESE at a neck breaking speed of about 1-2 mph. Wow. I sneeze at faster speeds. However, there are some indications that we might get patchy fog tomorrow. The hardest part about this forecast is not only the winds, but the timing of cold front which might be passing through tomorrow around the afternoon hours. The front however is not very fast, nor is it very strong.

So what can people in the Michiana/Ohio region expect for tonight. Well, the temperatures will definetly be around 40° for an overnight low tonight. Detroit, you'll most likely see the fog again, but will Toledo and Fort Wayne? That is to be determined. I'd say, yes, there will be some of that patchy fog (a.k.a. "Scattered" fog) but will we see another day of zero visibility like we did on Wednesday and today.

Basically, what I can say is this: Yes, there will be fog for most places in the NW Ohio/SE Michigan and NE Indiana regions. Will it be thick however, I do not know as of now. If I had to guess, I'd say yes to being scattered, no to being zero visibility. I'll know around 3:30 a.m. or 4:00 a.m., but that wont be of much help to you, so I do apologize.

Right now in BG, we're at 47° with a 39° dewpoint and 76% humidity, which is a little shy of what we were at last night when it was 47° with a 41° dewpoint at near 90% humidity.

Toledo, yesterday at this time, your temperature was 44° with a 42° dewpoint and 93% humidity. Right now (24 hours later) you're at 50° with a 43° dewpoint and 77% humidity.

(Remember, with fog, you want 100% humidity and the temp and dewpoint to be the same).

So fog expected tonight, will it be thick, if I had to guess I'd say no to the zero vis, but yes to the patchiness.

I'll keep you all up to date as usual, but for now, that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.